Adorama’s predictions for 2008 – the titles with a couple of my comments:
- New starter DSLRs will have Face Recognition Technology
- More pictures will be shot, fewer will be saved (I do that already )
- Digital camera prices will reach parity with film cameras
- Wi-Fi cards will rock the camera world
- Digital frames will surpass cameras as biggest holiday gift (I still prefer prints…)
- Kodak will be saved by its new sensor
- The Leica M8 will have company
- Infrared photography will become cliché
- 2008′s sleeper pro cam? The Olympus E-3!
- We’ll be able to change focus after the fact (no need for photographers anymore, just cameras and post-processing)
Here are their predictions for 2007 (copy paste from Google cache):
- The end of blur: In 2007, new technology will spell the end of out-of-focus subjects. Digital refocusing, a technology developed at MIT, has been patented and is being sold to camera makers. In samples we’ve seen, individual pixels in image files are “refocused” so out-of-focus subjects are sharpened.
- Noises off: Digital noise produced by small sensors with too many pixels at high ISO settings will be reduced to acceptable levels by new on-board software. Users will pay a premium for this while older models that lack this feature will sell at bargain-basement prices.
- The $500 starter DSLR becomes commonplace. They’ll probably be 6MP models, and they will include a kit lens. Every manufacturer will produce a model to be competitive. But most enthusiasts will pony up a few hundred dollars more for an 8-10MP model.
- 12MP compacts. Despite technical limitations, camera companies will roll out 12MP compact cameras that will produced noise-filled pictures. If they’re lucky, they’ll have the aforementioned anti-noise technology onboard.
- 12MP DSLRS: As with compacts, the new standard for enthusiast-level photographers, currently in the 8-10MP range, will hit 12MP, probably with a handful of models introduced at PMA in March. Price range will be between a grand and $1,500.
- Everyone will become a stock photographer, and nobody will make money at it. Microstock agencies will tie into photo sharing sites (it’s already happened at Flickr), allowing photographers to try to sell their photos for a buck or two per use. A handful of photographers will be successful (and will be hyped like crazy), but most will buy into the dream and make nothing.
- Online labs will go to war. Competition among online labs will heat up as more photographers try to figure out what to do with all of their image files. Who will win? Consumers, who can expect to pay unheard-of prices per print. For instance, Adorama’s PIX photo lab recently ended a promotion where 8×10 prints were 99 cents and 11×14 prints cost only $1.99. Will there be similar promotions in the future? We’re pretty sure there will be.
- Pros will upgrade to Adobe Photoshop CS3. Heck, they’ve already started, downloading the beta version by the thousands.
- Another one will bite the dust: In 2006 we saw Konica Minolta and Pentax bite the dust. I think we’ll see at least one more big name in photography either merge with another company or simply go away. I’m hoping a big electronics company with interest in photography, like perhaps Panasonic or Epson, will buy what’s left and keep the brand/lensmount afloat as Sony did with Minolta.
- We’ll be here. Whatever happens in ’07, we’ll be here to cover the latest photo industry news, and are planning some great new features. So, bookmark this page!
And here is a link to the 2006 version (and not the 2007, as previously mentioned)